Thursday, December 13, 2012

Why Modi May Not Win Many, Many Seats


Gujarat is better than before. But with economic prosperity comes snobbishness. And a desire to play kingmaker. And especially in India, a sense of emotional-ness with the Congress. Just like the rural population of the rest of India still hankers after the 'raj' and the white-skinned 'sahibs'.

India's most prosperous state will decide on December 20 the story of Indian politics. 

I have a feeling that the media has predicted Modi to do better than before so that his fall is harder. So they can claim that finally the people have triumphed, and also invoke Godhra and other demons. 

Media will call it the anti-incumbency factor. But the logic that dictates the Indian mind-set is this: my village/my city has seen a 30 percent growth in the last 10 years. I deserve a 50 percent growth rate. Because I am now rich and it's my money that goes into the running of the state. So I will not vote for the incumbent this time. 

Modi's detractors have, in fact, reminded people of the same; what you have is not because of the Chief Minister but your own hard labour, what you don't have is because of the CM. 

Contrary to popular belief, Gujarati media is not as favourable to Modi as they had been for a long time. Apparently, the government's decision to welcome more newspapers in the state has troubled the leading media houses, whose premiership has been threatened. Case in Point - Link

If he fares badly, the media and his thousand detractors will not consider the anti-incumbent factor but put the blame on his brashness, arrogance and other such apparent qualities. Should he win, they will call it an expected event and not credit him much. Such is the environment he lives in. 

Rich people demand more. And they are often unable to perceive relative progress. 

There is a good chance that Modi will be a victim of the classical Indian mindset. 

No comments: